How it Works
STAIRS is a complete trading system that covers each of the following decisions required for a successful trading outcome:
• Markets – What to buy or sell ?
• Position Sizing – How much to buy or sell ?
• Entries – When to buy or sell ?
• Stops – When to get out of a losing position ?
• Exits – When to get out of a winning position ?
STAIRS is a rule based positional signaling system on the indices based on the simple principles of Trend Following. The strategy relies on the optimal combination of price action and time duration. STAIRS focuses on riding intermittent trends and provides you trading signals in the direction of the trend at multiple pre-specified times of the day.
STAIRS provides the best returns per time spent in the markets. You spend under 5 mins a day to run this strategy. The system is based on an hourly time frame so you only need to peek into the market at specified end of the hour slots and take action (if any).
The concept of Always-in Position helps you be present in the trade when unexpected larger moves occur, many a times which are overnight/gap movements. In this strategy, you will be taking several small losses in return for much larger profitable ones. Historically, each of the winning trades on average is twice each losing trade, thus, creating a mathematical advantage over a large number of trades.
With STAIRS being a long and short system, it provides a natural hedge to any long only portfolios. Ideally a small 10-20% allocation of your equity capital to STAIRS may offset losses on a long only portfolio in a bear market.
An advantage of STAIRS is the flexibility you can have in terms of using leverage and the vehicle of your choice to trade based on the STAIRS signal. The signal is only a directional reference. A Buy or a Sell. The vehicle to be used for riding this signal can be futures or options or any synthetic combination of the two. You can also use a leverage of your choice.
STAIRS is a low churn model with only 50-60 transactions per index per year. There is no discretionary/emotional decision making or forecasting or predictions involved in this strategy. Once you are riding a strong trend, there may not be a trade for days or weeks together.
A model portfolio based on STAIRS is shared with you as a reference. This portfolio is run on a 3X leverage using near month futures contracts on the indices. More details on capital allocation and leverage can be seen in the FAQs
STAIRS can be run using futures or Options or combination of both. We provide 2 basic model portfolios for each Futures and Options .
The STAIRS signals (LONG or SHORT on Nifty and BankNifty Indices) are broadcast through a Telegram app channel. There are two channels. STAIRS FREE is an open access channel where all End of Day updates are put up. STAIRS LIVE is the subscription channel where you get the LIVE trade signals .
On receiving your subscription request, you are sent a channel invite to the STAIRS LIVE telegram channel on your registered mobile number along with an access to a LIVE STAIRS model trades google-sheet through your registered email address. You can make a copy of this sheet to track your own trades.
At the end of your subscription period, your subscription will be auto renewed for the same duration. You can chose to cancel/upgrade the subscription by sending email to email@example.com any time. The service is non-refundable at all times.
The STAIRS system is only meant to be a directional signal. The strategy per se is not important, but continuously following it with the correct money management, is. Your performance may vary from the model results due to the spot and futures gap or the leverage used or the vehicle of your choice. Since a very small part of the capital (under 30%) is usually used for margin in the model, the rest of the capital generates risk free returns and more than compensates for transaction charges and futures premium differences.
The performance of the strategy in the past has been outstanding, to say the least. While past performance cannot provide any guarantees for the future, yet the the rigorous usage and test of the STAIRS strategy over the past decade gives confidence for a bright future.
The best gains for STAIRS came in CY2018 with an annual return on capital at 133%+. As part and parcel of any trend following system, there are likely to be long periods of draw-downs. Despite several deep draw-downs in the past, STAIRS has not clocked even a double digit loss in last 7 years. The worst loss clocked was in CY2014 at -2.55%. It is expected that STAIRS will do very well in strong bull and bear markets making full use of strong trends.
The single biggest factor of success in this strategy is the ability to generate bigger profits on the short side. Thus STAIRS is a natural hedge for all long only portfolios. This is very clear in the results where the strategy has been tepid in mostly gaining years while being very aggressively successful in down or flat years and calendar years 2008, 2012, 2015 and 2018 for example have been good years.
Current year to date performance can be seen on the FREE Telegram Channel
The past performance since 2012 is tabulated here